Bank Negara Malaysia. What Ifs

Is the current USA top 20 hit by Kane Brown & Lauren Alaina.

On September 19, Bloomberg wrote an article stating that Malaysia's reserves are amongst the lowest and most vulnerable in Asia.

Bank Negara has hit back with a statement to Bernama. Read below :

KUALA LUMPUR – Bank Negara says the article published by Bloomberg, titled Malaysia Reserve Buffer Seen by Moody’s as Among Weakest in Asia on Sept 18 focuses only on a rigid interpretation of two economic indicators and therefore presents an unbalanced and simplistic assessment of Malaysia’s international reserves adequacy.

Responding to the article, it said the reporting by Bloomberg reflected a lack of understanding of the Malaysian economy, external position, financial system and its economic policies.

“This, together with a penchant for misplaced country comparison, without taking into account country specificities, has led to an erroneous judgment of the Malaysian economy and its external resilience,” it said in a statement.

Explaining in detail, the central bank contextualised the indicators and emphasised that an assessment of the adequacy of reserves should be undertaken with a broader review of Malaysia’s economic and financial developments. As for Moody’s External Vulnerability Indicator (EVI), which measured short-term external debt by remaining maturity over reserves, Bank Negara said they were not a material risk.

Correspondingly, banks have placements abroad to mitigate currency and maturity mismatches. Also included as part of short-term external debt are inter company loans and trade credits. Inter company loans reflected transactions between foreign direct investment companies and their parent companies.

This is subject to flexible and concessionary terms. In addition, trade credits are usually backed by export earnings which do not entail a claim on international reserves, Bank Negara explained.

WHAT IF, Bloomberg is MERELY stating FACTS. As NUMBERS, they DON'T, lie. They merely report, the realities on the GROUND

The 110 Billion Dollar Man. Slippery

Is a current US top 20 hit for Migos & Gucci Mane.

Slippery is how the stock market is going to be says the man who manages US$110 billion and out performed two thirds of fund managers.

Especially dangerous is the Asian market and currencies.  Bloomberg has the story :

Nader Naeimi has bought gold, shorted emerging currencies.

‘Markets need a correction,’ the AMP Capital investor says

Stock markets are headed for a big selloff, maybe not today, but soon.

That’s the view of Nader Naeimi, who heads a dynamic investment fund at AMP Capital and helps manage about $110 billion.

The Sydney-based investor has about 30 percent of his holdings in cash, an allocation to gold and is short emerging-market currencies versus the dollar.

His fund has beaten 77 percent of peers over the past year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Markets need a correction,” Naeimi said. “There is a significant disconnect between uncertainty and market pricing of risk.

North Korea and other events will provide the triggers for a correction.”

“While today’s fall in risk assets might not be deep, the process is one of an incremental rise in market volatility,” Naeimi said. This “will culminate in a deeper-than-expected correction.”

Malaysia. Here Comes The Rain Again

Is the massive 1983 hit single from British duo the Eurythmics, taken from the album touch.

Malaysia, better watch out, because word in town is here comes the rain again!!.

Free Malaysia Today, has the story. Read below :

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia is likely to be hit by a recession in 2018, with most of the sectors expected to slow down, political and economic affairs analyst Prof Hoo Ke Ping predicts.

However, he said, the palm oil industry would do well due to the La Nina effect which will see more rain than expected, pushing production and prices for the edible oil upwards.

“Malaysians will feel the pinch of recession from next year onwards due to various factors, including a decline in consumer confidence and the retrenchment of workers from such sectors as oil and gas, banking, retail, and electronics,” he told FMT.

1MDB. New Rules

Is the current hit single from Dua Lipa, taken from self titled album.

There are new rules in place when it comes to 1MDB's case in the USA. Apparently now the USA is pursuing a criminal case against those who stole our money.

Does this mean Jho Low will soon be charged in court soon? The devil is in the details...talk in town is the fat boy, might end up being the WITNESS.

Reuters have some of the story here. Read below :

 The U.S. Justice Department is conducting a criminal probe into 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and has asked for a stay on its civil lawsuits in connection with $1.7 billion in assets allegedly bought with money stolen from the scandal-hit state fund.

A total of $4.5 billion was misappropriated from 1MDB by high-level officials of the fund and their associates, according to dozens of civil lawsuits filed by the U.S Justice Department in the past two years.

1MDB did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

Malaysia. Rake it up

Is the current us top 20 hit by Yo Gotti & Nicki Minaj.

Malaysia looks like raking up, a long list of economic no no's, which soon could trigger a massive withdrawal by foreigners in the bond and equity markets.

Inflation is at an eight year high, foreign reserves held by Bank Negara stood at US99.1 billion compared to US141.4 billion in 2013.

To top it all up, reserve adequacy is low, compared to the countries near us.

Malaysia’s reserves are sufficient to finance 6.5 months of imports, according to data compiled by Commerzbank AG using a 12-month moving average.

That compares with 9.9 months for Indonesia, 10.8 for Thailand, 11.2 months for the Philippines, and 21.6 for China.

Shiller. I feel it coming

Is the massive hit for Weeknd & Daft Punk, taken from the album starboy.

The starboy in accurately predicting stock market crashes is Nobel laureate  Robert Shiller, with his own version of the price to earnings ratio known as the Shiller CAPE.

Shiller says I can feel it coming. CNBC has the story. Read below :

Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller has a warning for investors.

The Nobel laureate says low volatility paired with a questionable price-earnings ratio could wipe out a chunk of the stock market's value.

"The price increase just went step-by-step with the earnings increase. I think it's an overreaction to good earnings," said Shiller on Wednesday's "Trading Nation."

His comments came as the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were hitting fresh all-time highs and the CBOE Volatility Index dropped to a record low.

In a special note to CNBC, Shiller writes that low volatility could be "the quiet before the storm." It's a phenomenon which Shiller says is making him "lie awake worrying."

And, that's not the only issue he's raising.

His Shiller PE Ratio, also known as CAPE, shows the price-earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the last 10 years is over 30. The number carries significance because the only times it's been higher was just before the Great Depression in 1929 and mid-1997 to mid-2001.

"I worry that historically earnings have been trend-reverting," said Shiller. "Admittedly, we do have a president who's going to 'make America great again.' So if he's right, maybe then we're launching out in a whole new path. But it would be the first time in American history."

Shiller's latest analysis shouldn't be taken lightly.

His forecasting skills were recognized in 2013 when he won the Nobel Prize in Economics. He's known for predicting both the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble in his book "Irrational Exuberance."

If Shiller is right and the stock market ultimately goes back to trend, it could create havoc.

R A I N

Is the massive new single from the Script. It could soon be RAIN ING  for Jho Low.

The Singapore Business Times, citing former US ambassador to Malaysia, John Mallot drops a bomb shell : The USA will pursue criminal charges against Jho Low.

The story is below : http://www.asiaone.com/business/us-action-1mdb-could-put-time-limit-malaysias-political-chaos.