Thursday, 10 November 2016

Donald Trump. The House Of Morgan Speaks

You'd be wise to take HEED. The Guardian has the story.

Read Below :

Investors large and small will be relieved that Wall Street hasn’t crashed since Donald Trump pulled off one of the most surprising election results of the age.

But obviously the market reaction plays second fiddle to the wider consequences of America’s choice -- as the protests in New York, Chicago, Boston etc overnight show.

Stephanie Flanders of JP Morgan says Trump needs to pass three tests, as the world watches him closely.

The first will be for him to build a strong cabinet, with respected figures in key posts of Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State. Second, he needs to continue to give voice to the calmer, more gracious version of himself that was on display in his election night acceptance speech.

No-one should expect him to repudiate everything he said in the campaign about open borders and trade deals such as the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement. But the third test for the President-Elect will be to demonstrate that he does not plan to tear up the parts of the Washington establishment that are actually working quite well – notably, the US Federal Reserve.


Flanders points out that Trump’s economic plans will have major implications for the global economy:

The combination of looser fiscal policy and increased uncertainty over globalisation would be likely to mean a stronger dollar and potentially higher US inflation and higher interest rates. That is not a hugely helpful combination for the rest of the global economy, especially emerging markets. But that, too, is uncertain and could take time to materialise. In the meantime, my colleagues and I are not predicting a radically different path for the US economyfollowing this result - or for US interest rates.