Tuesday, 28 February 2017

Jaks Resources. I need a hero

Is the smash hit by Bonnie Tyler, taken from the footloose movie soundtrack.

JAKS Resources, very badly needs a hero. Can Koon Yew Yin, do the footloose, and return JAKS back to RM1.35.

Some remisers whom i know, says that Koon still has the X FACTOR. They point out to JAKS rebounding from RM1.04 to close at RM1.10, and point out that the Vietnam project is actually a goldmine for JAKS Resources.

Me, I am more comfortable with M&A's Mieco Chipboard, as the players are more stable and rationale.

That being said, there is more to be made from JAKS Resources, so expect a real cowboy type swing pretty soon, because reputations are on the line.

Ringgit Malaysia. Broken

Is the smash hit Lifehouse, taken from the album, who we are.

Ringgit Malaysia, looks Broken, with the currency hitting an all time low of RM3.17 against the Singapore Dollar

Monday, 27 February 2017

RM10.5 Billion. Don't Speak

Is the 1996 massive hit for No Doubt, taken from the album tragic kingdom.

By all accounts, I am a nobody, nor am i a trained economist, but months ago, when Bank Negara Malaysia, started crimping the NDF trades, I had warned, the move, could well place this nation on the tragic kingdom list.

With foreigners holding of Malaysian government held bonds falling to 46 per cent from 51 per cent, there is a huge "don't speak" on what is going to happen in the middle of next month.

Come mid March, the central bank must be held responsible if foreign funds pull out the RM10.5 billion, that is up for redemption.

The governor of Bank Negara Malaysia must resign because instead of helping the government of NAJIB Razak, He has become a clear, present, and dangerous walking liability.

Ringgit Malaysia. We're Not Gonna Take It Anymore

Is the mammoth 1984 hit for hard rockers Twisted Sisters, taken from the album stay hungry.

Looks like currency traders aren't staying hungry after Bank Negara curtailed the offshore NDF market.

Instead, they are saying We're not gonna take it anymore, and have given up on Malaysia. Reuters has the story. Read Below :

When Malaysia forced foreign investors in its markets not to dabble in offshore derivatives in its currency last year, its target was speculative pressure on the ringgit, but it appears to have shot itself in the foot.

The ringgit was the weakest currency in emerging Asia last year after China’s yuan, prompting Malaysia’s central bank to get a written commitment from foreign banks to stop trading ringgit non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), offshore contracts they use to hedge their exposure to the currency.

The upshot has been a flood of money leaving Malaysian bonds as foreigners, who own US$47 billion of them, were unable to hedge their risks in onshore markets because of a lack of liquidity.

“It’s a market that’s kind of been destroyed,” said Gene Frieda, the London-based global strategist at bond giant fund Pimco, who blamed the inability to hedge for making it difficult to make significant bond trades.

Although Frieda said the currency now looked cheap compared with regional peers, he couldn’t see it rallying under the circumstances.

“We don’t find the bond market particularly interesting at these levels,” he said.

Analysts at Nomura say November-to-January capital outflows from Malaysia hit a record for a three-month period, when RM27.9 billion (US$6.3 billion) of foreign cash upped and left. Foreign holding of government bonds fell to 46 per cent of the total outstanding value, from 51.6 per cent in October.

The South-east Asian nation’s US$97.7 billion of currency reserves are looking vulnerable after having fallen by US$3 billion in three months, and the ringgit has fallen 5.7 per cent since the end of October.

Drying up

The central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), insists that the NDF market is volatile, opaque and subject to abuse, and it told Reuters it was committed to its policy.

BNM will continue to enforce the policy of non-facilitation of NDF trading rules on the onshore banks to protect consumers’ interests,” it said.

It also insisted that the onshore markets were deep and broad enough to facilitate hedging, with spot and forward trade volumes worth more than US$152.4 billion over January and until February 22, of which non-residents accounted for 42.5 per cent.

But foreign investors say that while the BNM has succeeded in drying up the NDF offshore market, there just aren’t enough onshore sources of dollars to take the other side of their trade.

“The NDF market is now extremely illiquid,” said Prashant Singh, lead portfolio manager with Neuberger Berman in Singapore.

“The onshore market is also illiquid, and there is no natural seller of dollars other than BNM themselves for now.”

Traders say the BNM’s own sales are too irregular to be reliable for their purposes.

The capital outflows do not yet represent a crisis for an economy that still runs a trade surplus, but further capital outflows could result in a sharper ringgit fall, tighten financial conditions and thus threaten both growth and market stability.

Investors’ immediate concern is that the foreign money in 10.5 billion ringgit of bonds maturing in mid-March will flee. They already suspect that much of the overseas cash in an 8.75 billion ringgit chunk that matured in mid-February has left the country.

Mohammad Hasif Murad, investment manager at Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd, which holds Malaysian government bonds and has some bonds maturing in February and March, said the firm had repatriated some of the proceeds of matured bonds, but has also “strategically reinvested in specific tenors where we see value”.

Aberdeen Asia has assets of US$3.5 billion, and its allocation to Malaysian local currency assets is approximately US$110 million.

Fixed income managers at Old Mutual Global Investors, which has 29 billion pounds (US$36.4 billion) under management, paint a gloomy picture.

“We are currently underweight Malaysian bonds and underweight duration given the risk of increased outflows from offshore investors and a likely re-steepening of the local curve as domestic demand will struggle to absorb new debt supply,” they said in a note.

There was little incentive to invest in Malaysian bonds without the ability to hedge, given the likelihood that the ringgit will remain undervalued due to increased capital outflows, they said in a note.

Pimco’s Frieda says the currency could at some point be an attractive buy, provided there was enough liquidity to transact freely.

“You still have to be able to get in and get out,” he said.

Ringgit Malaysia. We came to smash

Was a massive club hit for DJ Martin Solveig, taken from the album smash.

The Ringgit is getting smashed alright, against the Singapore Dollar , as it closed at RM3.16 against the SGD.

This is a historical low. With the Ringgit now flashing 4.44 against the US Dollar, the numerical Chinese sign suggest, Ringgit Malaysia, you better beware, because We Came To Smash!!!!

Mieco Chipboard. Everybody Loves A Winner

Is the 1960's classic from William Bell.

Everybody loves a winner indeed, and Mieco Chipboard is indeed a winner.

There is a ten sen a share interim dividend, and to top that full year 2016 profits surged FOUR TIMES to RM82.67 million versus RM18.64 Million.

The most optimistic thing about the Mieco results are that the directors are confident of matching this performance in the quarters to come.

Mieco to fly sooner, rather than latter.

Sunday, 26 February 2017

North Korea. Why Me

Is the 1980's smash hit for Irene Cara, taken from the album What A Feeling.

Well, what a feeling indeed, as Malaysia looks at its "friend", North Korea, and asks WHY ME?

Reuters has the story. Read below :

North Korea spy agency runs arms operation out of Malaysia, U.N. says

REUTERS/EBRAHIM HARRIS

By James Pearson and Rozanna Latiff

It is in Kuala Lumpur's "Little India" neighborhood, behind an unmarked door on the second floor of a rundown building, where a military equipment company called Glocom says it has its office.

Glocom is a front company run by North Korean intelligence agents that sells battlefield radio equipment in violation of United Nations sanctions, according to a United Nations report drafted for the Security Council seen by Reuters.

Reuters found that Glocom advertises over 30 radio systems for "military and paramilitary" organizations on its Malaysian website, glocom.com.my.

Glocom’s website, which was taken down late last year, listed the Little India address in its contacts section. No one answers the door there and the mailbox outside is stuffed with unopened letters.  

In fact, no company by that name exists in Malaysia. But two Malaysian companies controlled by North Korean shareholders and directors registered Glocom's website in 2009, according to website and company registration documents.

And it does have a business, the draft U.N. report says. Last July, an air shipment of North Korean military communications equipment, sent from China and bound for Eritrea, was intercepted in an unnamed country. The seized equipment included 45 boxes of battlefield radios and accessories labeled "Glocom", short for Global Communications Co.

Glocom is controlled by the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the North Korean intelligence agency tasked with overseas operations and weapons procurement, the report says, citing undisclosed information it obtained.

A spokesman for North Korea's mission at the U.N. told Reuters he had no information about Glocom.

U.N. resolution 1874, adopted in 2009, expanded the arms embargo against North Korea to include military equipment and all "related materiel".

But implementation of the sanctions "remains insufficient and highly inconsistent" among member countries, the U.N. report says, and North Korea is using "evasion techniques that are increasing in scale, scope and sophistication.”

Malaysia is one of the few countries in the world which had strong ties with North Korea. Their citizens can travel to each other’s countries without visas. But those ties have begun to sour after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s estranged half-brother was murdered at Kuala Lumpur’s international airport on Feb 13.