Sunday 20 November 2016

Goldman Sachs. Top 2017 Trade. Thinking

About it, by Nathan Goshen is the current "feng tao" hit, flooding the club scene.

Bloomberg here has the story about Goldman's number one trade for 2017. Ringgit Malaysia, you are NOT going to like THIS.

Read Below, the Goldman PUT :

Here Are Goldman Sachs' Top Trade Ideas for 2017

Finding the winners from populism and reflation.

Wondering how to invest in a year marked by President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, China's attempts to keep growth both high and sustainable, and the continued rise of populism in Europe?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has got you covered, with a team led by Co-Head of Global Macro and Markets Francesco Garzarelli releasing its first set of top trade recommendations for 2017 in a note to clients.

A warning: the recent track record for Goldman's year-ahead trade ideas has been less than stellar.

Amid the market turmoil that characterized the start of 2016, the bank was stopped out of five of its six recommended top trades before Valentine's Day.

1. U.S. dollar the winner from developed market populism

Remember the much-ballyhooed divergence trade that was among the most consensus calls of 2016? It's back — but with a twist.

The rationale for this trade is now grounded in political considerations; chiefly, the populist tide sweeping the globe.

"In the U.S., events have moved in a U.S. dollar-positive direction, between the rising likelihood of fiscal stimulus, more protectionism and immigration controls, all of which add up to a more inflationary mix and tighter-than-otherwise monetary policy setting," the team writes. "In Europe, ongoing uncertainty over the Brexit process will likely weigh on the pound, while the slew of elections, including the Italian political fallout after the constitutional referendum on Dec. 4 and general elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, will weigh on the euro."

The strategists are targeting 10 percent upside in the U.S. dollar relative to an equal-weighted basket of the euro and pound, and would exit the position if the trade went against them by 5 percent. This would entail the euro falling to parity against the greenback, and the pound sinking to 1.14 on a 12-month horizon.