Sunday 12 February 2023

Why has the stock market and the Ringgit been reacting negatively to the 2022 GDP figures : Humpty Dumpty.

has been a popular children's rhymes for decades now and is the first song that was thought in my school at standard one.

MALAYSIA under Ismail Sabri defied World Bank expectations by not only posting higher than expected growth but it managed to edge Vietnam to be crowed South East Asia 's best economic performer.

SO why is the stock market and currency market reacting very negatively?

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wallHumpty Dumpty had a great fallAll the king's horses and all the king's menCouldn't put Humpty together again

FIRST and foremost, the team which delivered the outstanding growth figures at the Ministry of Finance has been dismantled. READ : Finance Ministry KSU removed.

SECONDLY, there is growing suspicion in the market place, unlike during Tengku Zafrul stint, the finance ministry under Anwar Ibrahim had pressured the central bank not to increase interest rates.  READ : I can discuss it if needed but that is the prerogative of BNM, claims Anwar Ibrahim

BASICALLY,  when your boss tells you, why he doesn't want interest rates to be raised, but it's your call, then you know what you have to do.

SO how negatively have the markets reacted to Anwar Ibrahim running the economy, post GDP 2022 announcement?

AT mid day not only is the stock market down, but more tellingly 991 counters have seen zero trading.  There are only 269 gainers while losers are at 528 counters and this pessimism is now translated to the Ringgit  which is down to RM4.36 to the Dollar.

BUT are these the only reason the markets are giving Anwar Ibrahim the thumbs down? NO. EXPECTATIONS  are Anwar Ibrahim's increasing of electricity tariff rates and IWK rates  will stir another round of inflation, but this time against a more sinister backdrop.

STUDY the Bank Negara report on the outlook of 2023, and you will notice all the fourth quarter GDP data points to Malaysia heading towards a technical recession.